As Climate Evolves, So Do Farming Strategies
by Jeremy B Hughes, HORSCH LLC
Climate change. These two words, when mentioned in conversation can inspire or enrage many opinions and emotions. Today’s information on climate change seems to mostly channel through media, movie stars, advocates, and the profiteers of fear.
What we hear day after day is almost entirely negative: disaster, famine, collapse of society. What we don’t hear today is a common-sense conversation about climate change. Since our Earth was created, climate has been an ongoing evolution, even prior to humans. This is scientific fact. To what degree we as humans have on climate will continue to be an ongoing study.
One question today that is rarely discussed: How does climate change have a positive effect? Are there examples where climatic change has changed crop rotations which has provided beneficial results? In this article, I am taking the regional climatic evolution view of North Dakota, where I reside and where Horsch USA is based. Also, note that I used the term climate evolution instead of climate change. The term climate change has been overused, overly made negative, and generates too much emotion.
The northern plains of the US have been noted over the years as big wheat country. Here in North Dakota where our Horsch Mapleton facility is located, the crop rotations for years have been based around wheat, pulse crops, oil seeds, root crops, and row crops. Today North Dakota ranks first in production of non-oil sunflowers, edible beans, flax, oats, sugar beets, canola, spring wheat, and durum wheat in the USA. We also host major acres of oil sunflowers, potatoes, lentils, soybeans, and peas. Our cropping in the USA is very diverse. Ethanol production, potato processing, sugar beet processing, sunflower processing, cereal milling, along with an expansive logistics infrastructure, support our diverse cropping.
From south to north
In 1998 I first came to North Dakota as a teenager working with a contract harvesting crew. In the US, every season hundreds of contract harvesters begin in May harvesting wheat in Texas and continue harvesting through late summer into western Canada; then returning to different areas of the states for fall harvest. This exodus of the Great American Wheat Harvest and custom harvesting as it’s known has been a tradition since its origins during WWII between 1939 and 1945. When I look back at 1998 and my first time in North Dakota, the cropping system looked very different from today. Per the chart below, in 1998 the primary crop in North Dakota was wheat. For the most past, this was a spring planted wheat, along with durum and barley. North Dakota had the second largest wheat acres, with Kansas only having around 200,000 more acres.
Up until the mid-1980’s, North Dakota had been a mostly arid climate. Consistent hot summers, low rainfall, cool nights, and often frigid winters. This supported a crop rotation of mostly cereal grain, some oilseeds, and sunflowers. Then in the late 1980’s to early 1990’s our climatic pattern in North Dakota began a shift. On average from the early 1990’s to present, we have experienced the following trend changes in comparison to the previous 100 years:
- Reduction in extremely hot days (Image 1)
- Consistent warm nights
- Below average extreme cold days (Image 2)
- Consistent above average rainfall (Image 3)
- Increase in extreme precipitation events (Image 4)
(Data from https://statesummaries.ncics.org/chapter/nd/ )
Image 1 
Image 2 
Image 3 
Image 4
Taking into consideration these dynamics within the past 30-40 years, the previous 100 years of climate evolution has gained North Dakota, on average, 30 additional growing days. Long term forecasts into the future tell us that North Dakota will continue to experience, on average, a continuation of increasing moisture with both snow and rain; along with additional growing days.
Rotation changed
So how have these trend shifts affected cropping in North Dakota? As the 1990’s entered into the new millennium, a shift in crop rotation was underway. In the early 2000’s one crop in particular began appearing in the northern plains: soybeans. In areas as far north as the 49th parallel, farmers started experimenting with soybeans. Genetics were improving, offering varieties suited for shorter growing seasons. The climate itself was more suited due to more moisture and growing days. Combine those dynamics with the region’s long summer daylight hours, the stage was set for a major shift in crop rotations. Areas of North Dakota where soybeans adapted, corn soon followed.
Planted acres of soybeans in North Dakota grew at a steady pace through the early 2000’s and both soybeans and corn were proving to be viable with good yields. Then came the 2010’s, which brought the highest grain prices seen in over a generation. With proven success of corn and soybeans in the region at high commodity prices, total acres planted went up dramatically for both crops.
Today when I look back to my first times in North Dakota in 1998, I am amazed at the changes that have transpired in less than a generation. Since 1998, total soybean acres in North Dakota has increased close to five times; going from 1.5 million acres to slightly over 7 million acres. Corn acres have increased four times in that same time frame; 1 million acres to 4 million acres. In 2021, North Dakota ranked #4 in total soybean acres in the USA. The only states with more acres are Iowa, Minnesota, and Illinois.
Besides actual crop rotations, the climate evolution that helped advance row crop acres in the northern plains has also created other shifts in agriculture. Back in 1998, most of the logistics of grain handling was based on dryland wheat. The grain logistics system was based on average yields of 30-60+ bushels per acre pending area and the fact that wheat harvest being in late summer. Fertilizer usage, grain elevator storage, grain drying, trucking, harvesting equipment, railroad systems, and local grain processing was mostly based on this dynamic.
Ty Brown, farmer from Indiana:
Without a doubt, farmers in Indiana are witnessing climate evolution first-hand. It takes longer for spring warmth to arrive than the past. In addition, our rainfall pattern is wetter in the spring combined with more extreme rainfall events. On the bright side our 1st freeze usually comes later in the season. Our biggest challenge is with the more extreme rainfall events and our rainfall events being more spread out. We might get one month’s worth of rain in a two-day event and then no rain for another month. To help adapt to these changing weather patterns intensive drainage systems are getting installed to help control water runoff. In addition, our cropping practices need to be more resilient to periods of moisture extremes. We have more total rainfall than any time of the past, but during the growing season our time between rainfall events has increased. This means we need to hang on to every drop of water we can get. We want our soils to act like a big sponge. Cover crops, conservation tillage practices, biological farming and drainage systems are all playing a part as we adapt to climate evolution.
Different infrastructure
Now, let’s completely change the crop rotation now to include soybeans and corn. The logistics system that once was adapted towards 30-60 bushel per acre wheat now had to integrate fall harvest crops with higher yields per acre. Today corn yields of 150-200+ bushel per acre is achievable. Plus, 70% of the top three acreage crops are now harvested in fall. With this dynamic change, so changed the entire logistics system we have. During the late 2000’s into the 2010’s a massive infrastructure expansion occurred and is still ongoing today to accommodate these crop rotation changes. Grain storage volume on farm and at grain elevators continues to increase. Our farm and commercial grain drying capacity continues to increase. Railroad terminals have expanded for both outgoing grain and incoming inputs like fertilizer. Fertility logistics have changed due to the increased need of NPK (nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium), especially for corn. Machinery changes included row crop harvesting technology and more trucking capacity to handle the volumes at harvest.
With higher yield crops not only in volume, but in revenue, also creates fast changes. Land values along with cash rent values increased rapidly. Farm income revenue has increased. Income revenue of ag businesses has increased. With growth of larger farms and ag businesses also came more employment opportunities and an overall economic growth for the state.
With the changes in crop rotation also came a change in our business as HORSCH here in North America. When I started with HORSCH in 2006 our primary product was our Panther seeding system which were suited for the no-till farming techniques of the Dakotas, Montana, and Western Canada. As the 2000’s transitioned into the 2010’s our markets began changing fast in these northern areas. With less emphasis on small grain acres and more emphasis on row crops, farmers were diversifying their farm machinery; and so changed our business.
In 2008 we started working with Joker here in North America. Preliminary demonstrations and validation of the concept since the high-speed disc had never been seen in the USA. Our thoughts on where the first market would be included the corn belt and the central plains. But by 2010 what we experienced was something totally different. As I had mentioned earlier, during these years we began experiencing more precipitation. Both in rain and snow, which leads to wet springs for planting. Here in North Dakota, where at that time, the western two thirds of the state was primarily no-till, now we had residue in fields. Combine that with wet springs and now we are growing other crops like corn that increase residue levels even more.
These combined dynamics set the stage for evolving the Joker product here in North America. With Joker soon came Maestro with first markets in the northern plains planting soybeans and corn. Within just a few short years, we were fully engaged in planting, seeding, and tillage which launched our business growth across North America.
Given this article focuses on one region in the US and how climate evolution has made a key impact on our business of farming, the same can be said for other regions of North America. In the same time frame that we were experiencing these changes at home in North Dakota, there were other areas changing and evolving. Just to our north into Canada, were similar climate evolutions occurring including:
- Manitoba – In 2009, soybean acres were less than 500,000 acres. By 2019 acres were at 3,000,000.
- Western Canada – In 2017 canola acres exceeded wheat acres for the first time in history. Canola yield average for this region has over doubled in the past 20 years.
- Saskatchewan – Increases in soybean and corn acres in the late 2010”s.
Even here in the USA we are seeing climate evolution continue to influence farming:
- California – Today there is a migration of people leaving California, including farmers moving their farms. Due to drought and increasing government regulations, many dairies have moved to Idaho, Texas, and other areas of the central US. The same dynamic is just now starting to be seen in vegetable production, which California leads the US output.
- Idaho – 2021: More corn acres that potatoes. Influenced by increase in dairy herd numbers due to farm migrations out of California.
- Corn Belt – Cover crops: As science suggests CO2 is a contributor to climate change, incentive payment programs are now being offered to farmers for planting cover crops. Cover crops today in many areas including the Corn Belt are becoming part of the crop rotation.
- High Plains – This region was known as the wheat belt for many years. The glory days of the Great American Wheat Harvest have forever changed. Today in Kansas, Texas, Nebraska, Colorado, and surrounding states, the fields once with amber waves of wheat now grow irrigated corn, forage, and sorghum. This transition was made possible by utilization of the Ogallala Aquifer, which sets beneath eight states and provides water for 27% of the total irrigated crop land in the nation. Today, there are serious conversations on the depletion of this water reserve, as water availability is reducing every year.
Remain agile
Climate evolution has affects are farming around the world, yesterday, today, and into the future. There is positive experience in evolution that we have seen yet understand there are still areas where negative experience evolution is occurring. For here in North Dakota the climate evolution has had benefits in our agricultural economy. Yes, there have been changes in the way we farm. Changes in the crop rotations. Changes in our entire production, logistics, and processing system. However, as long as this world keeps turning, we will continue to see changes in all regions that are stimulated by climate evolution.
Over the years of being with Horsch, I have had the opportunity to travel all over North America; visiting farms and experiencing these changes, engaging in many conversations on the current and future state of agriculture domestically and globally. A dynamic I see ongoing on many successful, long term farming operations today is one high level approach: Agility. As the world climate evolves, we need to remain agile and ready to change for future success in farming.